Can anyone end Bayern Munich's reign in Germany?
As the majority of the Big Five European leagues get underway this weekend, we take a deeper dive into a couple of plays we like on the futures market in Germany's Bundesliga.
Bayern Munich now sits on 9 consecutive Bundesliga titles. And they are the rightful favorites to claim a 10th straight title as new boss Julian Nagelsmann enters off a strong run at RB Leipzig. Bayern as usual will be led by perhaps the top striker in the world, Robert Lewandowski who comes off a record-setting campaign in finding the back of the net. There's talent galore as usual and Bayern also improved at center-back bringing in Dayot Upamecano from RB Leipzig.
Will Bayern get their 10th consecutive German title? Probably. And of course that's why they are a - 600 consensus favorite to do so (You need to lay $600 for every $100 you wish to win). By betting on Bayern, you're giving your sportsbook your money for the next 9 months with the top end returning 16.6% on your investment. All told, that's not the worst investment you may ever make... but I don't know too many people willing to lay that number.
If you're looking for a side that could give Bayern a run for the title in 2021-2022, I will suggest an side that we've taken a couple positions on. RB Leipzig who was mentioned above for losing their manager and top CB to Bayern are a side we like a lot this season, despite those losses.
New boss Jesse Marsch joins Leipzig after two excellent years leading RB Salzburg to back to back double titles in the Austrian Bundesliga and Austrian Cup. Marsch runs a very similar system to Nagelsmann so there should be very little adjustment in playing style. Leipzig did sell their top two center-backs (Konate to Liverpool in addition to Upamecano) but as usual they've re-loaded with young talent at the position. Josko Gvardiol, a super talented 19 year old joins from Dinamo Zagreb and Mohamed Simakan comes in from Strasbourg. Both are very talented options and will join Willi Orban in the rotation at the back.
"Die Roten Bullen" are loaded with strong midfielders and attacking wings. Last season they finished 2nd in the league despite not having a true striker after selling off Timo Werner to Chelsea during the summer. And that's what has us so excited about this team... enter Andre Silva from Eintracht Frankfurt where he was 2nd to Lewandowski in goals last season. Silva was a huge reason Frankfurt qualified to return to European football. Silva will get plenty of service and space from the attacking speed around him and we like him to perfectly compliment the rest of the Leipzig squad.
The other logical side to compete for the title is of course Borussia Dortmund. But we see strong reasons to prefer Leipzig to them this season.
Dortmund sold off uber-talented attacker Jadon Sancho to Man United this summer and while they have solid young talent to take his minutes, this is a huge loss for their depth if nothing else. But the biggest issue we see for Dortmund is the Erling Haaland situation. Haaland is drawing huge interest from the top clubs in England and Spain. While it looks less likely that he will be sold during this August transfer window, if Dortmund hold him for the entire season, he can leave on a free transfer next summer which would be terrible business for the club. We see this playing out one of two ways (and both are not great for Dortmund):
1) Haaland has a great first half of the season and Dortmund get an offer they cannot refuse during the January transfer window so as not to risk losing him for free.
2) Haaland has a bit of a down first half (by his standards) under the uncertainty around his future. In this case, Dortmund will likely be struggling a bit anyway.
This is why we prefer Leipzig this season at longer odds than Dortmund, a side which they finished higher than last year to begin with!
Our plays at the top of the table:
RB Leipzig to win Bundesliga without Bayern +250
(1.25 units risked)
(This market is available at almost all books)
RB Leipzig to win Bundesliga outright +1600
(0.25 units risked)
There is one team we are going to fade this year at the bottom of the table. VFL Bochum were a very lucky side last year in Bundesliga 2 to earn them automatic promotion to the top tier. Bochum significantly outperformed their expected goal metrics last season. They were +27 in acutal goal difference against an XG of +11.1. That 15.9 favorable difference was the highest by quite a bit in Bundesliga 2. A term we've heard coined in various places for a season like this is a "Luck Box" and it seems to us Bochum lived in the Luck Box in 20/21. Now they move up against way tougher competition and didn't do a ton to improve the squad. Add to this the likelihood we usually see anyway with promoted sides to fall back the following year (outside of the bigger clubs) and we will take a position on Bochum to be relegated despite the short odds.
Bochum to be relegated +100
(1 unit risked)
Bundesliga gets underway on Friday, Aug 13 and we will hope to profit from the outrights above. Good luck as always if you're tailing us or if you've got other action as well!
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Nate - SoccerPicksClub
Twitter: @Soccer_Winners
soccerpicksclub1@gmail.com