Finding value late in the season
A strong trend you can use to your advantage late in the soccer season
When betting soccer, there's a strong trend that we need to know about at this point in the late European season. Sometimes when you get strong trends like this, you need to pay attention and adjust your model slightly to account for it.
The trend is that games between teams in the last couple weeks of the league season, (especially the last week) where there is nothing on the line, tend to favor goals. This makes a lot of sense if you think about it. Players tend to want to have fun and show good skill and playing tough defense and keeping your shape requires a good amount of focus and attention to detail. Sometimes you may see teams rotate players also and this might lead you to think lower scoring games, but often that's not the case. The young, hungry players really want to impress and just as often it's the solid defenders that get rotated out of the squad.
Does this mean we blindly bet overs late in the season? Absolutely not! In fact, we still very much use the predicted score model we always do. It just means that we are more likely to play leans or borderline plays than we would be earlier in the season or in games that matter. This weekend, half of all of the plays we have given our members are overs. We always skew a lot more to overs than unders, but in a usual weekend, about 33% of our plays will be overs.
What a week we had!
We hit a hot stretch this week going 10 wins, 1 push and 2 losses in our 13 plays Monday - Thursday! To be fair, we had a poor stretch last weekend. But that just further validates Monday's blog about bankroll management and the draw-down. What if you weren't able to afford to bet this week because you lost it all during an 8 unit bad weekend? You wouldn't have recovered all of those units this week! Just like timing the investment markets, missing out on the best stretches can mean the difference between long-term profits and losses.
Liga MX Play-offs Reach Quarterfinals (Leg 2)
The first leg of the quarterfinals took place Wednesday and Thursday in Mexico and every lower seeded team won their home match! That will set up some great second legs this weekend. Let's take a look
Puebla vs Atlas (Atlas leads 1-0 on aggregate)
Puebla return home needing to win 1-0 or by 2 goals in any other score to advance. Since they didn't secure an away goal, any goal by Atlas would see Puebla need to win by two. If they finish 1-1 on aggregate, Puebla advances due to being the higher seed (Liga MX Quarterfinals and Semifinals work this way). This could be a tall order given the low scoring nature of this series. Puebla's best chance is to keep a clean sheet, but Atlas has had their number lately.
Cruz Azul vs Toluca (Toluca leads 2-1 on aggregate)
Cruz Azul "La Maquina" suffered a bit of a shock defeat on Wednesday conceding twice by controversial penalties. La Maquina dominated the Clausura regular season and there's a lot of pressure on them to win the title that has slipped through their hands so often in the recent years. Cruz did get the all-important away goal at least, so any win while conceding less than 2 goals will see them through. If Toluca should find 2 goals again, Cruz would need to score at least 4 to advance, so defense will be on their minds Saturday.
Monterrey vs Santos (Santos leads 2-1 on aggregate)
Monterrey "Rayados" head home in the exact same situation as Cruz Azul above. The away goal they secured (early in the match) will see them advance with any win conceding less than 2 goals. Santos are really a different team at home and we saw that in their comeback win Thursday night. Can the young, talented squad take that game on the road against a perennial contender like Monterrey? We will find out Sunday!
Club America vs Pachuca (Pachuca leads 3-1 on aggregate)
This will be the toughest home side to get to the semi-finals, as the late 3rd goal America conceded means that they need to win by 2 goals to have a chance here. 2 - 0 or 3 - 1 would see them through, but if Pachuca can score 2+, America would need to win by 3 or more! This will be a tall test for the most popular team in North America, but should make for great theater Sunday night.
Our members have plays on 3 of these 4 games in Mexico, where we are an incredible 70% winners on the season! (35W - 15L - 2P)
Let's give everyone a #FreePick on one of our overs for this weekend!
#FreePick : Sunday, Italy Serie A Sampdoria - Udinese Over 2.5 +100 (2.0)
Stay tuned to @Soccer_Winners on Twitter as we will also be releasing a $5 to $100 challenge bet. It's a great way to make a small wager and try to win big by winning 4 consecutive bets. Adjust the starting unit size to your bankroll, for example $20 to $400, etc.
Have a great weekend everyone and as always, DM us on Twitter or email soccerpicksclub1@gmail.com if you wish to get all our plays for life for just $50!
Nate