Futures Bets: '21-'22 Season +35.45 units!
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The image above is our totals for Futures bets in the '21-'22 European season. Needless to say it was a great result at +35.45 units for an ROI of 73%!
Today we will break down the results by league so you can get a flavor for what we gave out and how we fared. We will copy the actual post we sent to members to make the plays. It's fun to see how close (or off) we were depending on the league!
Let's start in England
England Championship
There appears to us to be a class side in this division and it’s relegated Fulham. Fulham have done the yo-yo a bit in recent years and we expect this to be the same as they’ve kept their squad largely in tact. And we have seen what the likes of Mitrovic and company can do at this level. Fulham was also hugely unlucky on XG last season which is always a plus for us. The changing of managers is a concern always but we will play Fulham a few ways to get back to the Premier League in 2022.
FULHAM OUTRIGHT WIN +550 (Risk 0.75 units)
FULHAM PROMOTED +185 (Risk 1 unit)
FULHAM TOP 2 +250 (Risk 0.75 units)
Another strong side we will put some stock in is Bournemouth. They were relegated 2 seasons back and lost in the playoffs to Brentford. Scott Parker jumped from Fulham to lead them and much like Fulham, they kept their core together in the off-season. Bournemouth also had an unlucky XG season last year.
BOURNEMOUTH PROMOTED +330 (Risk 0.5 unit)
BOURNEMOUTH TOP 2 +550 (Risk 0.3 units)
BOURNEMOUTH TOP 6 +150 (Risk 1 unit)
We won all 6 of these plays!
We did also give out a few plays on Barnsley which lost, but our total in England Championship was: +10.64 units on 6.3 units risked for a 169% ROI
England League One
This is a league where we like a couple of nicer long shots. These sides are being under-valued in the markets.
MK Dons were a middle side last year that also were a bit unlucky on the XG output vs actuals. We think that’s why they are priced so long. The Dons play a nice expansive brand of football and have one of the stronger midfields in this league. We will take a shot in what should be an open division.
MK DONS OUTRIGHT WIN +2000 (Risk 0.25 units)
MK DONS PROMOTED +600 (Risk 0.5 unit)
MK DONS TOP 2 +1000 (Risk 0.3 units)
MK DONS TOP 6 +250 (Risk 1 unit)
The other side we like here are relegated Wycombe Wanderers. The Wanderers were the unluckiest side in Championship last season and are priced way below the other related sides. They finished last year very strong trying to avoid relegation and add a couple strong players including stealing Josh Scowen from competition in Sunderland.
WYCOMBE OUTRIGHT WIN +2000 (Risk 0.25 units)
WYCOMBE PROMOTED +600 (Risk 0.5 unit)
WYCOMBE TOP 2 +1000 (Risk 0.3 units)
WYCOMBE TOP 6 +300 (Risk 1 unit)
Both of our sides finished in Top 6 and Wycombe went to Wembley with a chance for promotion but lost to Sunderland. MK had chances for Top 2 automatic promotion or even to win the league but couldn't quite get there late. We finished: +3.4 units on 4.1 units risked for a 82.9% ROI
England League Two
Another wide open league in our opinion where the value is on three sides in the top middle of the odds.
These are all sides that were solid last year and in some cases just missed promotion. We will takes shots on them at decent prices this year.
EXETER OUTRIGHT WIN +1400 (Risk 0.35 units)
EXETER PROMOTED +325 (Risk 0.5 unit)
EXETER TOP 3 +450 (Risk 0.5 unit)
EXETER TOP 7 +140 (Risk 1 unit)
FOREST GREEN OUTRIGHT WIN +1400 (Risk 0.35 units)
FOREST GREEN PROMOTED +300 (Risk 0.5 unit)
FOREST GREEN TOP 3 +400 (Risk 0.5 unit)
FOREST GREEN TOP 7 +130 (Risk 1 unit)
NEWPORT OUTRIGHT WIN +1800 (Risk 0.3 units)
NEWPORT PROMOTED +400 (Risk 0.5 unit)
NEWPORT TOP 3 +600 (Risk 0.5 unit)
NEWPORT TOP 7 +200 (Risk 1 unit)
This one was another huge success. Forest Green controlled the league all season and almost let the title slip away. Luckily, it was Exeter that was the one they were fighting off, so we were good either way! Forest Green did win the league with Exeter finishing 2nd meaning we swept those 8 bets! Newport also was in the mix most of the season but did end up just missing the Top 7.
We finished: +12.32 units on 7 units risked for an ROI of 176%
🏴 Premier League
Man City is the odds on favorite and rightfully so. But we think there’s a second team people are sleeping on… no not last years darling Chelsea or Man United (although both will be very good I’m sure). None other than 19/20 record setting champs, Liverpool! Let’s not forget that the Reds played most of last season without Van Dijk and Gomez and now they also added Konate from Leipzig for a great CB rotation. Add to that, a bounce back year from Trent Arnold-Alexander and a healthy Jordan Henderson and we see no reason Liverpool won’t be in the mix.
DUAL FORECAST (1/2 IN ANY ORDER)
MAN CITY/LIVERPOOL +185
(Risk 1.25 units)
STRAIGHT FORECAST (1/2 EXACT ORDER)
MAN CITY 1/ LIVERPOOL 2 +300
(Risk 0.5 unit)
Moving onto teams at the next level.
Sure, Aston Villa lost Jack Grealish to City. But they used those profits to bring in 3 excellent player (Leon Bailey from Leverkusen, Emi Buendia from Norwich and Danny Ings from So’ton). And they may not be done. Everybody else is back and they have one of the top GK in the league in Argentinan first teamer Emi Martinez. Last year Villa was in this mix but fell off when Grealish missed most of spring injured. The depth they’ve added is more important than losing one world class player IMO.
ASTON VILLA TOP 6 +550
(Risk 0.5 unit)
ASTON VILLA TOP 10 +125
(Risk 1 unit)
Another side we fancy for Top 10 is Brighton and Hove Albion. Nobody, and I mean nobody had an unluckier goal season that the gulls last year. We won’t take a Top 6 position on them as that could be a stretch, but we like them Top 10 and in a H2H matchup with a team we think could really slide this year.
BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION TOP 10 +150
(Risk 1 unit)
BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION HEAD TO HEAD VS SOUTHAMPTON -125
(Risk 1 unit to win 0.75 units)
Norwich City could be here to stay this time and we like them to be the strongest of the 3 promoted sides and they are at the longest price! Norwich lost Buendia to Villa but added US striker / winger Josh Sargent from Bremen and still have Pukki and Cantwell in the mix.
NORWICH CITY TOP PROMOTED TEAM (Watford, Brentford, Norwich) +275
(Risk 0.5 unit)
We move to the bottom of the table and we have some stronger opinions here. We will focus on 3 teams we think could be relegated and how we will play them.
Watford could struggle to stay up and has done very little to improve their roster. Where will the goals come from for them?
A team we’ve made money on over the years is scrappy Burnley. Nobody gets more from less than Sean Dyche but with everyone improving around them cash strapped Burnley have done nothing again to improve.
The team we are fading that may be a little surprise to some is Southampton. The second half of last season they were the worst team in the Prem. And now they’ve sold off Danny Ings who they could count on for goals. Will Che Adam’s finally step up? We are less than optimistic. James Ward-Prowse is one of the top set piece specialists in the world and he is still linked to Leicester and Villa, but even if he stays now we may see him sold in January.
WATFORD RELEGATED +100
(Risk 1 unit)
BURNLEY RELEGATED +250
(Risk 0.75 units)
SOUTHAMPTON RELEGATED +500
(Risk 0.75 units)
WATFORD BOTTOM OF TABLE +350
(Risk 0.5 unit)
BURNLEY BOTTOM OF TABLE +700
(Risk 0.25 units)
SOUTHAMPTON BOTTOM OF TABLE +1800
(Risk 0.25 units)
RELEGATION TREBLE (All 3 teams relegated) +5000
(Risk 0.15 units)
WOLVES HEAD TO HEAD VS SOUTHAMPTON -115
(Risk 0.9 units to win 0.75 units)
We accurately predicted the Liverpool bounce-back when so many were blinded by Man United getting Ronaldo and Chelsea coming off the UCL title. We also correctly saw Brighton's top half finish and won a couple matchups against Southampton. We had 2 of the 3 relegated sides (Watford and Burnley). We were off on our Norwich assessment and Aston Villa also let us down late in the season.
We finished the EPL: +6.03 on 10.7 units risked for an ROI of 56.4%
Champions League was another excellent result for us
🇪🇺 Champions League
Last season we hit Chelsea at 22-1 for a half unit of risk right after the draw. We also had 5 other sides and ended up with a net win of just over 6 units (we added a big play on Man City in the knockout stages).
We are going to use the same philosophy we did last year. Identify good teams that have a very high likelihood of advancing beyond the group stage. Here we go
MANCHESTER UNITED +1400
(Risk 0.7 units)
REAL MADRID +1600
(Risk 0.7 units)
ATLETICO MADRID +2750
(Risk 0.4 units)
SEVILLA +8000
(Risk 0.15 units)
AJAX +11000
(Risk 0.1 units)
RB SALZBURG +25000
(Risk 0.05 units)
We also added Liverpool later in the knockout stage and ended up with several teams in the quarters and both finalists! Real Madrid got it done for us
We finished: +7.3 units on 4.6 units risked for an ROI of 158.7%
We of course had others where we only won a little or lost some. Here's a summary of the rest of the leagues we had futures on and how we did overall:
Eredvisie: +2.14 units on 3 units risked for a 71.33% ROI
Bundesliga 2: -1 unit on 1 unit risked for a -100% ROI
Bundesliga: -2.5 units on 2.5 units risked for a -100% ROI
Italy Serie A: -3.05 units on 3.05 units risked for a -100% ROI
Europa: -1 unit on 1 unit risked for a -100% ROI
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It was an incredible season for us in the Futures Channel. The bar has been set high, and we will do our best to try to replicate these results in '22-'23!
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